"Harm to the World"
Democracy & AI, India: #1 world's most populous country & the end of Title 42
The rapid deployment of AI technology, the war in Sudan, the end of Title 42… it’s hard to pick a theme for this month’s newsletter (and keep it short) with how much is going on in the world. Alas, I’m sure I’ll battle with this feeling every month, so let’s dig in!
Democracy & AI
We’re only at the starting gate and it’s already hard to keep up. New artificial intelligence technology is rapidly being deployed, with Google’s ChatGPT rival, Bard, being the latest major release to the public.
Besides strong ethical concerns due to a lack of regulations, a fear of job displacement, significant cybersecurity risks, and the potential for weaponization, “AI-generated content is emerging as a disruptive political force just as nations around the world are gearing up for a rare convergence of election cycles in 2024.” (Axios)
Consultant Katie Harbath, who led Facebook’s election efforts from 2013 to 2019, warns that "the 2024 election is going to be exponentially more challenging than it was in 2020 and 2016." But instead of playing the blame game for past problems, she urges us to work on AI impacts instead.
Noting that the US primary season is only seven months away, Harbath emphasizes that “election plans cannot be spun up in days or weeks. Work should start 18 months to 24 months ahead of election day."
In 2024, around one billion voters will head to the polls across the U.S., Russia, the European Union, the UK, India, and Indonesia. However, neither governments nor AI companies have put appropriate election protections in place.
As such, the potential for disaster is quite apparent… This week, in his first testimony to congress, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman detailed ways in which artificial intelligence could “cause significant harm to the world.”
Ryan Heath at Axios provides context.
AI could upend 2024 elections via:
Fundraising scams written and coded more easily via generative AI.
A microtargeting tsunami, since AI lowers the costs of creating content for specific audiences — including delivering undecided or unmotivated voters “the exact message that will help them reach their final decisions,” according to Darrell West, senior fellow at Brooking Institution's Center for Technology Innovation.
Incendiary emotional fuel. Generative AI can create realist-looking images designed to inflame, such as false representations of a candidate or communities that are targets of a party's ire.
With that, it is fair to say that election monitoring, cybersecurity, and civil unrest will be top of mind for many of us!
India: No. 1 Most Populous Country
Up next we have a geopolitical news item that seems to have gotten limited attention despite its longterm significance: India overtaking China as the world’s most populous country.
According to projections by the United Nations, India is now estimated to have a population of 1,425,775,850, thereby surpassing China which held on to the title of most populous country since the UN first started tracking global population records in 1950.
This comes at a time when the Indian government is increasingly looking to promote itself as a large power to be reckoned with on the international stage. Experts are now trying to assess if this demographic shift will yield more dividends or burdens for the country.
From a risk perspective, a large population means that many challenges play out on a much more significant scale, such as grappling with the growing threat of climate change. Additionally, organizations embedded in India are going to have to scan the horizon for the following:
Strikes, closures and labor issues
Protests and civil unrest
Migration and crime
Polarization and identity conflicts
Resource conflicts
Cyber crimes
End of Title 42: All Eyes on the Border
Last week, Title 42, an emergency health authority issued by the Trump administration in March 2020, was finally lifted. The authority allowed U.S. border officials to turn away migrants who tried to cross the U.S.-Mexico border on the grounds of preventing the spread of COVID-19.
The end of Title 42 prompted many federal, state, and local agencies to brace themselves for an influx of migrants, yet so far the number of migrants crossing the southern border has been much lower than expected and even dropped majorly over the weekend.
Those numbers are, however, expected to rise again over the next few months and will present continued challenges to border states and sanctuary cities.
Things that caught my eye…
In April, together with Jayashri Lokarajan, I had the incredible opportunity to facilitate a tabletop exercise in Singapore for security professionals from across the Asia Pacific to bring the reality of the climate crisis front and center. Our three-phase scenario started off with a record-breaking heatwave in Vietnam causing mass hospitalizations and long-term impacts to corporate operations. This time it only took 10 days and part of our scenario already came true: On May 6, 2023, Vietnam recorded its highest-ever temperature of 44C/111F, with experts predicting it would soon be surpassed again because of climate change. So, if you think you’re pushing the envelope when you’re scenario-building, think again…
This leads me straight to Chris Godley, Director of Emergency Management at Stanford University, who gave a riveting presentation at the California Emergency Services Association (CESA) annual conference in Lake Tahoe, CA earlier this month. He challenged the room full of mainly local, county, and state emergency managers to not just prepare communities for disasters that will probably occur by 2050 (major earthquake, massive cyber incident, etc.), but also those that *could* occur. The “Big 5” scenarios Godley dove into were:
Profound drought
7-day blackout across the American Southwest
Migration crisis with 50,000 people crossing the US/Mexico border per day
Geopolitical conflict leading Southeast Asian nations to clash
The storytelling around each scenario was incredibly compelling; each epitomizes the level of creativity we absolutely have to display in order to adequately plan for future risks. So, if you’re looking for your next tabletop exercise scenario, look no further than here.
Ukraine joined the European Union’s Civil Protection Mechanism, the European solidarity framework that helps countries overwhelmed by a disaster. The EU Civil Protection Mechanism aims to strengthen cooperation between the 27 EU countries and now 9 Participating States (Iceland, Norway, Serbia, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Türkiye, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, and Ukraine) on civil protection to improve prevention, preparedness, and response to disasters. Since its inception in 2001, the EU Civil Protection Mechanism has been activated for more than 600 emergencies and crises inside and outside the EU.
The EU Civil Protection Mechanism has been the central engine in channelling emergency in-kind assistance to Ukraine from all across Europe since the onset of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine in February 2022. In its largest and longest running operation, more than 88,000 tonnes of life-saving equipment, food, and medicines, have been sent to Ukraine via the Mechanism.
For the longest time I didn’t even know this international cooperation mechanism existed. I’m eager to follow its evolution as crisis management gains more and more relevance in Europe’s future.
Things I’m looking forward to…
I’m about to head back to Europe for six weeks. Part vacation, part work, I’m excited to visit family and friends AND make new connections!
If you are based in Paris or Berlin, coffee is on me. If you’re based elsewhere in Europe, let’s jump on a Zoom! Just drop me a message on LinkedIn :)
Last but not least… I’m playing around with bonus content ideas for Futurisk readers. What type of content would you like to see on a semi-regular cadence (bi-monthly or quarterly) in addition to the monthly newsletter? Drop your answer in the comments below!
Q&A with experts discussing future risks
Q&A on building and growing your crisis management career
Long-form article on future risks, trends and solutions
All of the above
Great summation for this month. I think in terms of AI, which is all the rage right now, many assume that it is just another new technology that society and political systems will have to adapt to.
That's true, but there is also the chance that the pace of that change may exceed the ability of our political systems to handle it. 2024 will be a dangerous election for a great number of reasons besides AI as well.