When Politics Meets Emergency Management
China's Disinformation Campaign, the National Climate Resilience Framework & more
Talk about the world of (geo)politics and disasters colliding… two recent events showcase how quickly disaster response can get tangled up in politics. Plus, big news from D.C.
Morocco Limiting Foreign Aid
In the hours and days that followed Morocco’s 6.8-magnitude earthquake on September 8, 2023, international actors were dismayed at the kingdom’s reluctance to accept some foreign search-and-rescue teams’ help. Despite offers from 60+ countries, only aid from the United Kingdom, Spain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates was accepted, while aid from countries like France, Germany, Israel, Canada, and the United States was not. Remote villages in the mountains of Al Haouz province were hit the hardest, accounting for over half of the approximately 3,000 deaths. Five thousand more people were injured, and about 50,000 buildings were damaged. Why would a nation refuse vital humanitarian assistance while its citizens in hard-to-reach regions are having to search for survivors with their bare hands?
Bilateral assistance is a crucial tool of foreign policy. It is motivated by a nation's national security, economic, and political interests. Regardless of how genuine some humanitarian intentions may be, one must carefully consider the diplomatic and foreign policy goals that underlie such assistance.
Rabat expressed logistical concerns as its reasoning, stating that it supposedly wanted to "avoid complicating ongoing relief efforts with traffic bottlenecks on the limited road network within the earthquake zone." Other possible motivations could be concerns for its sovereignty, pride, and lack of trust.
China Spreads Falsehoods About Hawaii Wildfires with AI
Following into Russia’s footsteps, researchers found that China is now using new tactics to spread disinformation in the United States, including through the use of artificial intelligence (AI) to generate fake images. The Chinese government secretly spread false claims online that the August 2023 Maui wildfires were caused by a U.S. “weather weapon,” using AI-generated images to make them seem more believable in an attempt to sow discord and undermine trust in the U.S. government. The inauthentic posts appeared in 31 languages, aiming to reach a global audience.
“Natural disasters have often been the focus of disinformation campaigns, allowing bad actors to exploit emotions to accuse governments of shortcomings, either in preparation or in response. The goal can be to undermine trust in specific policies, like U.S. support for Ukraine, or more generally to sow internal discord. By suggesting the United States was testing or using secret weapons against its own citizens, China’s effort also seemed intended to depict the country as a reckless, militaristic power.”
What are some takeaways for crisis managers from this incident?
Be aware of the new tactics that adversaries are using to spread disinformation during crises. In this case, China used artificial intelligence to generate fake images of the Maui wildfires in order to sow discord and undermine trust in the U.S. government.
Have a plan in place to respond to disinformation campaigns. This plan should include monitoring social media for false information and developing a strategy to correct it.
Communicate with the public early, clearly and honestly during a crisis. This will help to build trust and confidence in the government's response.
Work with other countries to counter disinformation campaigns. This is a global problem, and it requires a global response.
Things that caught my eye…
Florida Congressman Jared Moskowitz (FL-D) and Louisiana Congressman Garret Graves (LA-R) introduced the FEMA Independence Act of 2023 in the House. The bill would remove the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and make it an independent cabinet-level agency again. Two key objectives of the bill are to reduce bureaucracy and create a direct link between the head of FEMA and the U.S. President. This is a significant development, and something many emergency managers have been advocating for for a long time. For some more background on this issue, check out Dr. Montano’s newsletter.
As a step toward advancing equity in the emergency management space, FEMA signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP) to further cement the partnership between both institutions. The agreement outlines “ways in which the two organizations will work together to help people before, during and after disasters.” One such way is by now sharing information and engaging in joint initiatives to strengthen capacities and attain equity throughout the disaster management spectrum.
The White House released the first-ever National Climate Resilience Framework.
“In addition to reimagining the Federal Government’s role in advancing climate resilience, the Framework also identifies six core objectives—supported by specific actions—that are critical to strengthening the nation’s protections against the impacts of climate change; that make communities safe, healthy, equitable, and economically strong; and that can and should be a focus of climate resilience efforts at all levels.”
Some of my favorite opportunities for action include:
Advancing and simplifying community climate planning by eliminating “the need for communities to develop multiple plans (e.g., hazard mitigation plans, asset management plans, resilience plans) to access Federal funding that supports community resilience.” → Yay for efficiency!
Incorporating climate information into engineering and architectural standards and planning practice to design for “future climate conditions and future climate-related loads (e.g., increased precipitation on roadways, increased energy demand during heat waves, changing geographical extent of extreme heat and cold).” → Yay for horizon scanning before spending $ and building!
Building a climate-ready and climate-educated workforce by investing “in all levels of education—including K- 12, vocational schools, college, and postsecondary education and training—to ensure the workforce is prepared to implement strategies that reduce risk, maximize resilience, safeguard cultural heritage, and respond to community needs.” → Yay for recognizing the power of education, especially from an early age!
Things I’m reading/listening to…
I enjoy reading biographies much more than disaster-related books, but Premonition by Michael Lewis felt like the perfect blend of the two. Right away, I was captivated by the story of Dr. Charity Dean, the assistant director of the California Department of Public Health in early 2020, and other seemingly random scientists and public health officials from around the country who banded together in secret to come up with the U.S.'s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The book is a sweeping condemnation of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and it's disturbing to read how the nation's response plan supposedly came together (hint: the CDC had nothing to do with it). Most of all, though, I took away lessons about leadership (or lack thereof), courage, and scrappiness 😎
Ever think about insurance companies’ insurance companies? Me neither. But in this Council on Foreign Relations’ podcast episode Could Climate Change Break Home Insurance?, I came to learn about the reinsurance market, which happens to be “one of the largest financial sectors that nobody's ever heard of.” This episode is a great introduction to the predicaments that surround the U.S. insurance landscape as the rise in frequency and magnitude of climate disasters is leaving countless homeowners uninsured as insurance companies are retreating from more and more states.
Things I’m looking forward to…
The Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) is hosting a hybrid panel discussion (open to all) on Predicting our climate future: what we know, what we don't know, what we can't know on Thursday, October 12, 2023 from 6.30pm to 8.00pm GMT.
Soon, Dragonfly is set to release its annual Strategic Outlook forecasting global risk trends. Their early warning indicators, scenarios, and thematic assessments are an excellent tool for any crisis manager to help drive tabletop exercise scenarios and strategic planning in their organization.
P.S.: If you’d like to submit a question about professional development, careers in emergency/crisis management, or adjacent topics to be featured in a Q&A, I’m collecting them here.